NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 11, 2023: Model backing Panthers, Browns

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One game stands out on the Week 11 NFL schedule, a rematch of Super Bowl 57 and a potential preview of Super Bowl 58. The Chiefs host the Eagles on Monday Night Football, and while Kansas City won as 1.5-point underdogs in last season’s Big Game, the Chiefs are three-point favorites this time around per the Week 11 NFL odds. That makes Philly an underdog for the first time since 2021 with Jalen Hurts under center. Hurts was runner-up to Patrick Mahomes both in the Super Bowl and in 2022 NFL MVP voting, and Kansas City has covered in four of its last five games.

The Chiefs are 6-3 overall against the spread in 2023, with only the Detroit Lions (7-2 ATS) covering more times. Detroit is favored by 10 points over the Bears in the Week 11 NFL spreads, making it one of six games with Week 11 NFL Vegas odds of at least a touchdown. All of the Week 11 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 11 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 174-125 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 28-17 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 11 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 11 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 11 NFL picks is that the Panthers (+10.5) cover at home against the Cowboys. This one may seem like a mismatch on paper, but the model acknowledges the Cowboys’ struggles versus the spread away from Dallas. All three of their ATS losses have come on the road, and those three defeats have all come in Dallas’ last four road games. Meanwhile, Carolina failed to cover in each of its first six games but has picked up two against-the-spread wins over its last three contests.

The one equalizer any time a team is heavily favored over another is turnovers, and Dallas hasn’t fallen victim to those recently. After one total turnover thru its first four games, Dallas has nine over its last five, including at least one giveaway in each of those games. On the other hand, Carolina has been very careful with the ball recently, turning it over just three total times over its last four games. Having extra possessions would allow the Panthers to stay competitive in this one as they cover in almost 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 11 NFL predictions: The Browns (-4) cover the spread at home versus the Steelers. Cleveland is both 4-1 against the spread at home and 4-1 ATS when Deshaun Watson is the primary quarterback. While the Steelers won when these two met in Week 2 in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have collected just one outright victory over their last five trips to Cleveland.

The Browns have the No. 1 total defense while Pittsburgh has struggled immensely on offense, being outgained in every game this season. On the other side of the ball, the Browns excel at running the ball, ranking second in the league, while Pittsburgh is 25th in stopping the run. The Steelers are allowing 144.3 rushing yards per game in their losses this year, and the Browns are averaging more ground yards than that in all games this season.

These teams are built similarly on the defensive side of the ball, but the Browns are more dynamic offensively. The model has Cleveland (-4) covering well over 50% of the time. The model also says the Under (37) hits in over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 11 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 11 NFL schedule and also just revealed three coveted A-rated picks. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which A-rated picks can you place right now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.