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The NFL wraps up its second year with regular season games in Frankfurt, Germany on Sunday when the Colts and Patriots will square off from Frankfurt Stadium. This game is admittedly a far cry from what the fans in Germany were treated to last week with the Chiefs and Dolphins going to head-to-head, with New England and Indy both under .500.
For the Patriots, this is as unfamiliar of a situation as they’ve found themselves in the history of Bill Belichick’s tenure in 2023. The club is 2-7 on the year, which is good for not only last place in the AFC East but also the worst record in the entire AFC. The bottom falling out in Foxborough has gotten to such a fever pitch that there are now questions as to whether this could be the final season for Belichick with the Patriots, the franchise he helped lead to its six Super Bowl titles. As for Indy, they are 4-5 on the year and unfortunately have been without first-round pick Anthony Richardson after the young quarterback suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5. Despite the loss of Richardson, the Colts have been scrappy with veteran Gardner Minshew under center, including last week where they beat the Panthers on the road.
Who will come out on top of this game on the international stage? And how can you watch the action unfold? You’ve come to the right place. Below, you’ll be able to find everything you need to know, including the key matchups for this contest and our prediction.
How to watch
When: Sunday, Nov. 12 | 9:30 a.m. ETLocation: Frankfurt Stadium (Frankfurt, Germany)TV: NFL Network | Live stream: fubo (try for free)Odds: Colts -2, O/U 43 (via SportsLine consensus odds)
Keys to the game
Can Gardner Minshew limit his turnovers? When Minshew protects the football, that typically means great things for his team. He committed zero turnovers last week against Carolina and it should come as no surprise that they were able to cruise to a win. In Minshew’s wins as a starter in the NFL, he has a 20-1 touchdown-interception ratio. In the losses, that ratio is 27-17. To expand it even further to total giveaways (including fumbles), Minshew has just two giveaways in wins and 32 in losses. So, if Minshew has a clean sheet on Sunday against a Patriots team that is tied for the fourth-fewest takeaways in the NFL this season, odds are Indy comes out on top. Can the Colts defense replicate last week’s showing? The Colts are the only team in the NFL to score at least 20 points in every game this season. While the offense is doing its job, the defense has struggled outside of last week where they held the Panthers to just 13 points, 275 yards of total offense, and collected three turnovers (two pick-sixes). In the three games before Week 9, Indianapolis’ defense had allowed 38 points per game (most in the NFL over that stretch) and 353.3 yards of total offense. Was last week the outlier or was it this unit turning a corner? Can the Patriots score? It seems like all you need to do is to get to 20 points against the Patriots and you’ll be well on your way to a win. New England is averaging just 15 points per game this season, which is the second-fewest in the NFL. If that holds, it’d be the worst scoring offense the Patriots have had under Belichick. Mac Jones is 3-7 in his last 10 games that were determined by one possession and has career-low numbers across the board this season.
Prediction
From an international perspective, the Patriots have fared much better than the Colts. New England is 3-0 in its international games all-time and has outscored their opponents 113-22 in those three games. Meanwhile, the Colts are 0-1 on the international stage, losing their lone game outside of the United States to the Jaguars in 2016. That said, these are VERY different teams that are in Germany, specifically as it relates to New England. There should be more faith put into Indy’s ability to score and put up points against a Patriots defense that did allow Sam Howell to throw for 325 yards last week. They’ve routinely been able to get north of 20 points and that’s simply something New England has been allergic to throughout the season, including the last two weeks. The Patriots will also be without starting left tackle Trent Brown (not injury-related, personal) for this game as he did not travel with the team to Germany, further exposing the offense. Indy gets to .500 with a win in Germany.
The pick: Colts 27, Patriots 21
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet.